Battle lines clear between blocs as German centre-right seeks leader

Berlin (dpa) – The post-Angela Merkel world remained hard to predict in Germany on Monday as the two groups that make up her centre-right coalition gave unanimous support to their own candidates, leaving the bloc no closer to picking a chancellor candidate for the autumn.

Normally, the far likelier candidate would be Armin Laschet, since he leads the larger Christian Democrats (CDU). But Markus Soeder, the head of the Christian Social Union (CSU), enjoys far broader popularity in the polls. However, the CSU only has members in one state, Bavaria.

Soeder announced on Sunday that he would consider a candidacy, which leaves the union with a choice: Back the man who leads the much-bigger CDU, or back the man who is polling much better, largely because he has spent the last year urging Germany take as many precautions as possible against the coronavirus?

As expected, the CDU leadership gave its unqualified support to Laschet on Monday, in what CDU secretary general Paul Ziemiak described as a mood-taking exercise rather than a final decision.

Hesse state Premier Volker Bouffier said afterwards that Laschet was “exceptionally suited” to the job.

But the CSU leadership was similarly unified in its support for Soeder later in the day. That meant that, after a day of talks, the union wasn’t much further than it was 24 hours earlier, at the time of Soeder’s announcement.

“Today is not a day of decision, but a day of consultation – not endless, that’s clear, but one that is open to results,” said CSU general secretary Markus Blume.

Soeder said it would still be necessary to sound the bloc’s legislative caucus and other party organizations for opinions.

He said the CDU’s backing of Laschet was an “important signal” that had to be noted, but pointed out that other factors – like poll numbers – also have to be considered. A candidate’s “chances with the people” needed to be taken into account.

“Surveys aren’t everything, but they are a clear measurement. And they are a clear signal as to what the people are thinking. And we can’t disengage ourselves from the opinion of the majority of people in our country.”

The comments are quite a change for a man who, until recently, said he had no ambitions beyond staying the premier of Bavaria.

Despite their rivalry for Germany’s top job, Laschet said the CDU and CSU would proceed together, and come to a decision “as quickly as possible.”

In a nod to his low popularity among the public, Laschet said the CDU would “not be led by opinion polls,” and that opinions can quickly change.

On Sunday evening, Soeder said a decision could come this week or in the next 10 days “at the latest.”

The autumn polls will see Merkel leave the post she has occupied for more than 15 years.

Whoever wins the right to be the CDU/CSU’s candidate will still be long way from the chancellor’s office.

They would first need to lead their parties to victory in the elections on September 26, with the CDU/CSU and the Social Democrats currently suffering in the polls.

The latest polls suggest the CDU/CSU could be down 5 per cent on their performance in the 2017 elections, while the Greens are set to supplant the SPD as the second-biggest party.

If the CDU/CSU still end up as the biggest party, the bloc would most likely need to find one or two coalition partners to form a government.