Germany faces risky coalition options as conservative support slumps

Berlin (dpa) – German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives have suffered another sharp slump in support in opinion polls, raising the risk of a potentially conflict-ridden three-party coalition leading Europe’s biggest economy after next month’s election.

Support for Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian-based Christian Social Union (CSU) allies fell three points over the last week to just 23 per cent after her nominated successor, Armin Laschet, stumbled in the campaign, a survey released on Wednesday by pollsters Forsa showed.

If repeated at the September 26 election, it would be dramatically lower than the 30.2 per cent the CDU/CSU garnered at the last election in 2017, which was the conservative political bloc’s worst result since World War II.

The premier of Germany’s most populous state, North Rhine Westphalia, Laschet has struggled to gain political momentum since his April nomination as CDU/CSU candidate to succeed Merkel, who is set to leave the political stage after the election.

But now Laschet’s attempt to seize July’s devastating floods in parts of western Germany to present himself as a credible crisis manager seems to have backfired, setting off alarm bells in the CDU/CSU about the direction of his campaign.

After being forced into an embarrassing apology after being caught on camera laughing in the background during a solemn speech by German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier in the flood-stricken region, Laschet’s campaign imagery has not improved.

At one point, Laschet popped up in the press coverage sheltered from the pouring rain by an aide holding an umbrella while talking to a flood victim prompting negative media commentaries about him leaving voters standing out in the rain.

Laschet might still be the frontrunner to succeed Merkel, but only 12 per cent of voters want Laschet as their next chancellor, according to Forsa.

Conducted for the RTL/n-tv media group, the weekly Forsa poll is roughly in line with other German voter surveys; The results also reflect Germany’s fragmented political landscape with seven parties likely to enter the national parliament after September 26.

The Forsa poll also showed the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) now essentially neck and neck with the environmental Green Party following what has been seen as a solid campaign performance by the SPD chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz.

This has opened the way for four possible post-election coalition scenarios including unsteady three-party alliances comprising the major parties, which would represent a major break from the country’s national two-party coalition tradition.

Christian Lindner, who heads up the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) has already put himself forward as the nation’s next finance minister. FDP support currently stands at 12 per cent, Forsa found.

At 19 per cent, SDP support is now at its highest level since April 2018. But it is still significantly below the 24.6 per cent the SPD scored in the 2017 election, which was also the party’s worst result since World War II.

Scholz is currently finance minister in Merkel’s CDU/CSU-SPD coalition.

Only a matter of months ago, political pundits were betting on the CDU/CSU leading a new historic two-party coalition with the Greens amid the high opinion poll ratings enjoyed by the Green Party leadership and growing voter concerns about global warming.

But since then, support for the Greens has slipped following a series of missteps by its nominated chancellor candidate Annalena Baerbock.

Still, at 20 per cent in Wednesday’s Forsa poll, support for the Greens is more than double the 8 per cent it scored in the 2017 election.

If repeated in the election, it should guarantee the Greens a place at the negotiating table for Germany’s next coalition government.

Based on a survey of 2,509 voters, the Forsa poll was conducted August 3-9 and is only a snapshot of current voting intentions.