ANKARA (HRNW) – A second-time presidential candidate who lost out to Tayyip Erdogan in a 2018 vote could push Turkey’s May election to a second round, potentially boosting the president’s prospects of winning, according to analysts and polls.
Muharrem Ince, formerly of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), joined the fray last month and secured a spot on the ballot at the weekend, fuelling concerns among Erdogan’s opponents about a split in the opposition vote.
Some surveys put Ince’s support at more than 5%, with one by Panoramatr giving him 10% last month.
Pollsters and analysts say his backers would mostly otherwise vote for CHP leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who is the main opposition candidate seen as the biggest electoral challenge to Erdogan in his 20 years in power.
“The fundamental consequence of Ince’s (candidacy) is sending the elections to a second round,” Panoramatr research director Osman Sert told Reuters.
He said Ince’s support could slide from 10%, where it has mostly held over the last month, as the vote approaches. “But even if there is such a meltdown it would not prevent the election going to a second round,” Sert said.